Peak Value for Pitchers and the Hall of Fame by Dan Coomer
Recently I looked at the position players who had been elected to the National Baseball
Hall of Fame (HoF) and concluded that only one or two short career players had
been elected to the HoF due to their peak value. I thought I would do the same
thing for pitchers, but decided it would be too repetitive. What I have set out
to do was see if there was a workable formula that would build a reasonable HoF
membership and also project who future members will be.
As
before my tool of choice was Lee Sinin’s Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. The
specific metric is use is Runs Saved Against Average (RSAA). Now once again I
advise the reader that RSAA is not an end-all and be-all of pitching metrics.
But, it is non-trivial and it is easy to understand. It is simply a calculated
estimate of how many fewer runs a pitcher allowed versus the league average. In
parenthesis after a pitcher’s name you may see three numbers in the format
(xxx/zzz/yy). The first number is the pitcher’s career RSAA. The second number
is his peak value RSAA (his best five consecutive years). The third number is
the number of seasons the player pitched in.
My
methodology included listing every member of the HoF with his RSAA score. Then
I looked at the historical record and determined how many RSAA a given pitcher
had in his five best consecutive years. I also noted how many seasons a given
pitcher participated in. As in the position players survey I separated the
pitcher into two groups. If they had participated in 15 or more seasons they
went in the career group. If not, they went into the peak value group. I then
wrote down the three following rules:
1)
If
you win 300 games you are in the HoF. I really wanted to bounce a couple of
these guys out of the HoF, but that would have involved knocking out Nolan
Ryan. Anyone up for that idea? So Mickey Welch, Pud Galvin, Early Wynn, and Don
Sutton get a pass. As a part of this rule the need to retire and wait five
years is waived.
2)
If
you have a career RSAA of 250+ you are in the HoF. Notice that neither of the
first two items has a time qualifier. The reason for Rule One is that the five
300-game winners mentioned above would fail this test.
3)
If
you played less than 15 seasons and your RSAA is 200+ and your peak value is
150+ and you played after 1900 then you are in the HoF.
I
really don’t like rule one, but anything else I came up with would drop Nolan
Ryan. I cannot leave the career strikeouts leader and the career no-hit leader
out of the HoF. I guess I could have written the rule to demand at least a
career RSAA of 200 which would have gotten rid of Welch, Galvin, Wynn, and
Sutton.
I
really like rule 2. Of the 36 retired
pitchers who have 250+ RSAA, 33 of them are already in the HoF. We just
need to add Bert Blyleven, Tommy Bridges, and Jack Stivetts. Seems good to me.
Rule
three has four components. I just believe to be admitted on the Peak Value rule
you need to have a shorter career. I know it means two pitchers can have the
total RSAA and the same Peak Value and one can be in the HoF and one not. If
you are going to play longer you have to be more productive. Since you want to
be elected on peak value you must have a good peak. 150+ RSAA seemed right to
me. I added the 200+ RSAA career component to avoid guys who have great peaks
but sucked the rest of their careers. The 19th century exclusion was
simply because a lot of guys from the era would have made my HoF under this
rule. It just seems like the right thing to do.
Okay
who is in under these rules?
Rule
One requires the election of Cy Young (813/339/22), Kid Nichols (678/338/15),
Lefty Grove (668/310/17), Walter Johnson (643/292/21), Roger Clemens
(613/224/21), Greg Maddux (540/271/19), Pete Alexander (373/197/20), John
Clarkson (508/346/12), Christy Mathewson (405/214/17), Tom Seaver (404/191/20),
Tim Keefe (377/249/14), Warren Spahn (319/130/21), Steve Carlton (282/122/24),
Phil Niekro (322/127/22), Gaylord Perry (317/158/22), Eddie Plank (278/101/17),
Old Hoss Radbourn (254/252/11), Nolan Ryan (205/69/27), Mickey Welch
(179/155/13), Pud Galvin (147/115/14), Don Sutton (137/105/23) and Early Wynn
(105/109/23). That’s 22 pitchers into the HoF.
Rule
two requires the election of (in descending order of RSAA) Amos Rusie
(370/315/10), Carl Hubbell (355/219/16), BoB Gibson (350/193/17), Bert Blyleven
(344/164/22), Whitey Ford (321/146/16), Jim Palmer (314/160/19), Hal Newhouser
(309/238/17), Tommy Bridges (301/194/16), Mordecai (Three Finger) Brown
(295/191/14), Ted Lyons (286/99/21), Stan Coveleski (282/187/14), Hoyt Wilhelm
(282/117/21), Bob Feller (279/174/18),
Fergie Jenkins (271/165/19), Jack Stivetts (268/197/11), Ed Walsh
(256/191/14), Clark Griffith (255/191/20), Rube Waddell (254/178/13), Juan
Marichal (252/179/16), Dazzy Vance (251/163/16), and Red Faber (250/153/20).
All of these pitchers are currently in the HoF, except for Blyleven, Bridges,
and Stivetts. That’s another 21 guys into my HoF. Clark Griffth is already in
the HoF as an executive/pioneer.
Rule
Three (the Peak Value Rule) would admit Lefty Gomez (241/192/14), Urban Shocker
(239/176/13), Joe McGinnity (238/188/10), Lefty Gomez (241/192/14), Sandy
Koufax (220/194/12), and Dizzy Dean (205/182/12). Only Shocker is not in the
HoF. Overall that puts 48 pitchers in to my HoF, including four guys who
weren’t there before and one guy who wasn’t listed as a pitcher. I think we can
agree that the five pitchers I have added are defensible selections. You may
not agree with them, but at least they aren’t Rube Marquard or Jesse Haines.
Now
we come to the pitchers that I would exclude. That is a list of 17 of
enshrinees that I would not include. They are, in alphabetical order with their
career RSAA, peak RSAA and number of seasons, Chief Bender (114/94/16), Jim
Bunning (205/131/17), Jack Chesbro (89/119/11), Don Drysdale (229/130/14),
Dennis Eckersley (208/112/24), Rollie Fingers (103/51/17), Burleigh Grimes
(129/88/19), Jesse Haines (120/56/19), Waite Hoyt (187/96/21), Catfish Hunter
(56/118/15), Addie Joss (205/140/9), Bob Lemon (180/115/13), Rube Marquard
(46/53/18), Herb Pennock (74/133/22), Robin Roberts (220/183/19), Red Ruffing
(170/155/22), and Vic Willis (194/157/13). I do feel bad about Willis, and
maybe Roberts. The Eckersley exclusion may require a tweak to somehow include
“closers” or none of those guys will ever get in. Other than that I don’t have
a problem with who gets dropped.
I
then tested my formula against active pitchers not in under the 300 victories
rule to see who is on pace to make it. The pitchers who are on pace for the HoF
with their RSAA’s above 250+ are Randy Johnson (511/270/17), Pedro Martinez
(471/289/13), Curt Schilling (327/181/17), Kevin Brown (321/211/18), Tom
Glavine (294/145/18), and Mike Mussina (291/139/14). No active pitcher
qualifies under the Peak Value rule. Now you have to admit, whether you think
all these guys are HoFers or not, there is not a stiff amongst them.
John
Smoltz (239/144/16) has a good shot at reaching the 250 plateau next year.
Relievers have very little chance unless they revert to the ways of Hoyt
Wilhelm and accumulate some innings. No other startin pitcher is within 75 RSAA
of qualification. The only reliever with any chance is Mariano Rivera
(175/110/10). He can’t make it on peak value, but with four more seasons like
the one he just had he can get in, but he will be 35 next season.
My
formula has given a pitcher three ways to get in the HoF:
1)
Have
a long career and pitch for good teams (i.e. “win” games)
2)
Have
a long career and pitch well.
3)
Have
a not so long career and pitch really well.
What
do you think?